After a fall of 31 percent from the 2006 high, housing prices are estimated to be approaching bottom, according to a Wall Street Journal article quoting the S&P;/Case-Schiller national composite home price index. “Housing prices will bottom in 2011” states Scott Simon, managing director at Pimco, who correctly predicted the housing crash in 2007. However, the article cautions, do not expect to return to the glory days of 2005 and 2006. Modest price recovery is the consensus of most money-management experts. Contact Parker Associates for more information at firstname.lastname@example.org.
New Home Price Projections In preparing revenue projections for budget planning, many builders rely upon past trends to forecast price increases for future years. This method turns out to be very misleading after the enormous price fluctuations of 2004-2011. A ten year trend of average price changes from 2001-2010 produces an overall average of 2.7 percent, whereas the ten years of steady growth from 1994 through 2003 provides an overall average of 4.7 percent (median of 4.4 percent) – a 74 percent differential, within a range of 3-6 percent. The 1994-2003 period following the recession of 1990-91 is a reasonable model for recovery from the 2007-09 recession despite the lingering […]
Housing Outlook NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe indicated that the building industry soon should be seeing tangible signs of improvement. Speaking at the Annual Construction Forecast Conference in April, Crowe cited positive factors such as affordability, favorable mortgage rates, tiny inventories of newly-built homes, declining vacancy rates, and pent-up demand caused by delayed household formations. “By the end of 2012, I expect new-home sales and starts to be back to where they were around the beginning of the recession in late 2007,” Crowe stated. He was even more positive about multi-family demand, projecting a 23 percent increase in 2011 starts, followed by greater gains in 2012. Contact Parker Associates at […]
Gross Domestic Product Growth Positive signs of economic recovery were reported by U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011. Despite the limitations of poor weather, high gasoline prices and slower consumer spending, strong job increases reinforce other factors supporting a sustainable economic recovery. Substantial private-sector contributions to economic expansion continue to increase the prospects for 2011 growth. Contact Parker Associates for more information at email@example.com.
Profit Opportunities Still Available Despite the length of the Great Recession and its lingering tail, development opportunities of unusual value still come to Parker Associates on a weekly frequency. If you are in the real estate investment market, please contact one of our senior associates to review our files on available opportunities. “Tell us of your primary interest area and we will respond promptly,” states Senior Associate Chris Parker.
DEFINITION OF SPRAWL . . . Over the past few years, many writers have confused urban development sprawl with density – the lower the density, the greater the sprawl. Others have simply used sprawl to describe any type of urban development they personally find distasteful. The word has become a cliché for a wide variety of urban conditions without specific definition. Webster’s Dictionary describes sprawl as “to spread or develop irregularly” – a definition that applies to a great many urban areas at any density. The linear blight caused by major city streets suffering from unregulated peripheral development, both old and new, is likely to be accepted by most […]